titsup
Strong in the Force
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Post by titsup on May 13, 2016 22:54:45 GMT
Just putting this here and adding to it over time. I love reading quotes predicting the popularity of the game, especially for future reference. Here is one I found today.
The peak player count in Steam in the last 24 hours was 85, so there is a nice prediction here of there being a minimum simultaneous users of 8,500 'at launch'. I'll happily grant them launch by Port's definition and say that's when they determine Episode 1 is out of early access.
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titsup
Strong in the Force
Posts: 819
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Post by titsup on May 13, 2016 23:39:05 GMT
Oldies, but oh so goodies
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dodgy
Strong in the Force
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Post by dodgy on May 14, 2016 7:49:48 GMT
Oldies, but oh so goodies Can we all spam Mishri on launch?
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titsup
Strong in the Force
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Post by titsup on May 14, 2016 15:19:42 GMT
I think he has only posted twice in the past year.
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titsup
Strong in the Force
Posts: 819
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Post by titsup on May 14, 2016 15:21:59 GMT
I really wish I had Dev+ access, as there was a thread in there referencing SotA selling more than 1 million copies. Alas, I could only see the title.
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Post by nemolives on May 14, 2016 16:21:38 GMT
I really wish I had Dev+ access, as there was a thread in there referencing SotA selling more than 1 million copies. Alas, I could only see the title. That might be possible, Shroud had a wonderful reputation at launch, and has been on Steam sale a few times... which incidentally, much of the community was against. It's the same in Elite: Dangerous's community, there seems to be an irrational hatred of Steam, or possibly deluded devotion to Kickstarter companies that would rather 100 pennies go directly to the company rather than 150 go to them, and 50 to anyone else. It's a really, deeply weird viewpoint that crowdfunding seems to bring out. But large initial pick up isn't questionable to me; we all hoped for great things from people we have many reasons to have admired in the past. The obvious question now though is... well it's so obvious, it's astounding the community can't see it. I mean, they can click the Steam player tracking list, surely?
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titsup
Strong in the Force
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Post by titsup on May 14, 2016 22:21:10 GMT
I really wish I had Dev+ access, as there was a thread in there referencing SotA selling more than 1 million copies. Alas, I could only see the title. That might be possible, Shroud had a wonderful reputation at launch, and has been on Steam sale a few times... According to steamdb, Shroud is at 25,298 ± 3,996 owners. That would include Steam purchases as well as claimed Steam keys. I imagine hitting 1 million in sales is a bit of a stretch.
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Post by nemolives on May 15, 2016 4:41:55 GMT
That might be possible, Shroud had a wonderful reputation at launch, and has been on Steam sale a few times... According to steamdb, Shroud is at 25,298 ± 3,996 owners. That would include Steam purchases as well as claimed Steam keys. I imagine hitting 1 million in sales is a bit of a stretch. Looking at the Campaign figures too, there's only "Total Backers: 60,174", which I think I saw explained somewhere includes non-account holders (anyone who spent any money), so even with your Steam figures counted as entirely new accounts (which they aren't, but let's be generous), we aren't breaking 100k even. So yes I guess 1 million players is rather ridiculous!
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titsup
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Post by titsup on May 15, 2016 16:58:50 GMT
According to steamdb, Shroud is at 25,298 ± 3,996 owners. That would include Steam purchases as well as claimed Steam keys. I imagine hitting 1 million in sales is a bit of a stretch. Looking at the Campaign figures too, there's only "Total Backers: 60,174", which I think I saw explained somewhere includes non-account holders (anyone who spent any money) Indeed it does! In fact they took in something like 800 'new pledges' the week they moved to the $5 charge for forum privileges while the average week is around 120.
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Post by fossil on May 16, 2016 14:51:18 GMT
There are also people that own multiple accounts. And not just one alt account, multiples.
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titsup
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Post by titsup on May 16, 2016 17:21:08 GMT
There are also people that own multiple accounts. And not just one alt account, multiples. Oh, that's a given, of course. Envy has I believe 14 accounts. Most of the high dollar pledges that are sold off are bought up by existing players. They're nowhere near 60.000 individuals backing this game. I saw Envy estimate somewhere that the number was likely closer to 35-45,000 and I'll be that's accurate.
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Post by nemolives on May 16, 2016 18:00:36 GMT
There are also people that own multiple accounts. And not just one alt account, multiples. Oh, that's a given, of course. Envy has I believe 14 accounts. Most of the high dollar pledges that are sold off are bought up by existing players. They're nowhere near 60.000 individuals backing this game. I saw Envy estimate somewhere that the number was likely closer to 35-45,000 and I'll be that's accurate. I've never been able to work out what they think they can do with so many extra pledges; most of the early backers still have the extra characters on their accounts so they don't need them for alts, and anyway every single character can be both adventurer and crafter, so they don't truly need many alts either. The obvious answer is that they honestly believe the game is going to take off, any moment now, absolutely for sure, and they think they're getting a great investment in scooping accounts now... It's a profit making exercise, in which case, they must be crazy, because it's clearly not making anyone any money now. The only generous answer I can think of is that for people like Envy, they want to do what ever it takes to get all their friends in and relive those happy memories of the early days with them, so they're grabbing accounts now to make it easier to pass on later, presumably at a loss but one taken for love. But again, the days of early UO will not and never really can come back, and the game is nothing like Envy claimed he wanted it to be anyway. If that is the reason, surely he knows how disgusted the PvP community is with Shroud? And on the PvE side well, did any of us really keep anyone interested when they saw how the tentacles of the cash store were wrapped around everything? I'd love to know where this persuadable community of people that would justify account sitting actually is, because I've never seen it. And if it's not profit or account sitting... why is anyone doing it? If I were a millionaire, could I spare $60,000 to just give to Lord British for thanks for what Ultima meant to me in the past? Maybe, but I hope I'd have given $600,000 to genuine charitable needs before I spent that on multiple accounts just to support Shroud's development as a moral issue. But let's say they did, so I can't complain about that; we just get back to the same old problem of Game Design For Millionaires; you presumably weren't one when you played Ultima as a kid. And the game certainly wasn't scripted to put Wealth before Virtue even if your parents were rich and bought you the game. That wasn't what the spirit of Ultima was at all. Designing for millionaires now though just means you're guaranteed to not get another Ultima, and few can afford to play it if it somehow was. Portalarium should have just taken your cash as a charity and then told you to bugger off, and you should have had the sense not to encourage them when it was clear that they just wanted to pander to whales. You as a consumer should have known better. Many of us did, which is the main reason the game is dying now; they lost their audience. But for those still in, and still throwing cash around... why? Why? WHY??? I just don't get it.
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titsup
Strong in the Force
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Post by titsup on May 16, 2016 21:10:15 GMT
At current, I believe most of the folks selling are making some profit. I think that's seen as an indication that there is profitability in these accounts. The problem is these accounts that are selling aren't selling to new folks, they're just selling to people who already have multiple accounts. I suspect they believe that once house placement is possible, the values will jump up, but that seems a generous speculation at best.
I'm not sure any of them has those who are buying as investments sees the great chance this is all a bubble that will likely burst once they can plop their houses down. It seems a very real possibility that value will not be retained.
In regards to envy, he has started posting on the forums again, mostly complaining about the direction. He's openly criticized the new combat system and said it more or less spells doom for any level of PvP in the game.
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Post by nemolives on May 16, 2016 23:06:49 GMT
In regards to envy, he has started posting on the forums again, mostly complaining about the direction. He's openly criticized the new combat system and said it more or less spells doom for any level of PvP in the game. How blind do you have to be to not realise combat wasn't going to change much from the previous few years development? And another thing I've never gotten is the Classic Shard PvPers complete inability to ever admit that there's virtually no one into that gameplay style in an MMO setting; some of the arguments were trying to meta-game the debate itself and bully/confuse the audience I know, but even when presented with evidence that no one is playing that type of game they insist there's eleventy-billion on private servers and other places you aren't looking. Ok, maybe there could be... but in Shroud? There's like only two blokes and a cat who ever went in the shardfalls. And when one of them was me (and my cat) the unbelievably strong vegetable monsters every few steps meant you didn't really have any room to fight PvP anyway. Shroud people are weird and I don't understand them.
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Post by fossil on May 16, 2016 23:13:39 GMT
www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/video-game-review-shroud-of-the-avatar.51040/If i was to write a review of this game this is how id do it (forgive some of the sarcasm) Shroud of the Avatar! Forget Facebook, twitter, and snap chat! Instead join Shroud of the Avatar! This is one of the best socialite games out there next to Sims online! With this game you do not need a FB account or the such just jump on here and hang with friends and dance around in cartoon underwear, sharing emotes with everyone, you can even emote dances with each other! Hundreds of people dancing around in their underwear, pretending to be drunk, lay back in a hot tub with one of the toon hotties! (hopefully its actually a female, or that would be kind of weird!) Buy expensive houses with real money ! (but still pay in game tax on them!) Oh shoot! No lot to place it on??? buy expensive lots as well! (hopefully you can place them somewhere or find them) or maybe you can find a nice personally owned town somewhere to place them! Forget living in an NPC town, those lots are reserved like fine wine! Dont worry though you can still stroll up and down the streets telling yourself youll never be able to get a lot in this NPC town, but youll still frequent it alot since the only place to sell stuff to NPC vendors are in this town! After all you still need to make gold to pay for those houses and lots! (Did i mention you can chat and dance the night away with the other users! Its 100% better than having a FB account or something of the sort!) Oh yeah i almost forgot this is a video game not a social network!!! (or is it?) As soon as the game has picked what type of weapons and skills you can use its time to get out there and grind away! (get used to this , you will have to do it for long periods of time!) Who doesn't want to work in real life and also in your free time??? I dont know what id do if i didn't get off from a long stressful day at work and not have to keep working hard for enjoyment! The grind is great! Very mundane!You will kill at least a million wolves, bears and skeletons! Sell their hides , heads, and equipment. Keep in mind this will be a lengthy endeavor, your skills will barely raise, and when they do, you then have to go find "special" trainers for skills scattered throughout the realm! (use your social networking skills to find them!) Also keep in mind you will have to spend gold on skills you dont need, to get to ones you do! there is no class system so forget coming in here and becoming something other than what everyone else is (especially if you love to PVP) In order to be good at PVP there are certain requirements here. Grind as long as you can, then go to bed come back the next morning and see how far you've gotten while you slept!( yeah you get the picture!) Talk to other PVPrs and find out what skills they use. (you'll also need the same skills to be even half a decent as them!) Even though you may be flagged PVP, understand that the ones that are not flagged can attack you! As you are running to an Ankh to res, or your boy/girl is rezzing you, the blue that just killed you will just run out of scene and reset to non pvp, and there's nothing you can do about it! Talk about flipping the tables on grieving! Now the non pvp can grief you!!! Such a great new way to run a game! PVE/RP etc.... This game is the best game out there for you! Everything is slighted towards you! You will get pretty much all you want! Shroud of the Avatar loves you! Just ask or complain! You'll get what you want! Remember its always 5 to 1 when it comes to PVP! "Ask and you shall receive" You will be able to RP your hearts out, with no consequences! Talk all that smack!!! "I am death and all that comes into line with me will fall!" Pay close attention to the "Un-flagged rating" when coming into contact with this type of RP'r! Don't worry they will never flag PVP anyway! Crafting, MY GOD!!!! Talk about a second job! Crafting is probably the most boring process in the game, too many resources needed for simple stuff and barely enough resource in one node! You will be out gathering most of your time in the game and if your smart be in Single player while doing it as to not run out of resource because some other jerk just came by while you were fighting those 5 red spiders protecting the node, just to find out that jerk took it while you were fighting and if your lucky when you do finish with the spiders you get more than 1 or 2 pieces of that resource! (Here's a side note -While adventuring out there, you will never be able to find a powerful weapon, armor, or a true pile of gold from that monster that took you and 5 other friends to drop, you may get 10gp for that battle that took forever for nothing!) The most powerful weapons will be "made by other players" So if your looking for a not so powerful weapon they sell them for 20,000gp on public vendors (yep that means more grinding for you!) Crafting will cost you a lot of gold if you buy recipes, 250 gold a pop, between the prices of recipes, skills, and equipment you will be broke most of the time and have to choose one, or the other when spending! (again more grinding for you!) Understand there will be ridiculous amounts of resources for simple items, that really shouldn't take that much to make. This game is not even close to UO, WoW, ESO, EQ or Black Desert, so if you were expecting the same type of game, it is not! This is not an exciting adventure it is more of a second job and closer to a Second life type of game! Some people have real jobs and families , and not a lot of time on their hands to play a game like this, personally i dont want a second job, and im sure others dont either. Personally i want to have more treasure for creatures i kill, the ability to play a class, and i would like to find superior weapons and armor on boss monsters, as well as decent amounts of gold. that can not be received any other way but buy actually earning it. I want a decent PVP set up, and if your not flagged PVP then you should not be able to partake in PVP things! example; more resource, weapons armor, titles, to name a few Things like that should be EARNED and not just received since others have it! Finale notes: Scoring 1 - 10 Creativity 8 Game Graphics 8 Game Play 5 Enjoyment 4 Production 5 Stability 3 (takes too long to load into game and certain scenes, some are broken and need to be fixed) Personally i expected a lot more based on the designers. DISCLAIMER - Understand these are just my personal opinions. - just wanted to post this before its gone
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titsup
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Post by titsup on May 16, 2016 23:18:34 GMT
I believe Envy's argument about the combat is that the most current changes were ones that will likely put a nail in the coffin of PvP. Having to cursor target as opposed to tab target is bad or something like that.
I don't really have an opinion on the matter, but if nothing else, envy loves PvP and has been critical of sota's adaptability at times. When he says the new system is a problem over and above what was there before, I'll take his complaints as at least coming at it from a knowledgeable source, even if one might disagree with his conclusion.
The mind boggles at the support for what is either a 'really great game coming together nicely' or 'great ideas that have only just started to be put together' or whichever they choose to suit the argument they desire to make at the time.
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Post by nemolives on May 17, 2016 3:26:59 GMT
I believe Envy's argument about the combat is that the most current changes were ones that will likely put a nail in the coffin of PvP. Having to cursor target as opposed to tab target is bad or something like that. I don't really have an opinion on the matter, but if nothing else, envy loves PvP and has been critical of sota's adaptability at times. When he says the new system is a problem over and above what was there before, I'll take his complaints as at least coming at it from a knowledgeable source, even if one might disagree with his conclusion. The mind boggles at the support for what is either a 'really great game coming together nicely' or 'great ideas that have only just started to be put together' or whichever they choose to suit the argument they desire to make at the time. The problem is the PvP community tend to say their way is the only way to play... including when arguing amongst each other, to the point of letting the perfect become the enemy of the good. With regards to Shroud, I remember that argument about tab targeting in particular; There was a faction of PvP players who claimed it was a crutch for the unskilled, too close to a WoW carebear style game; the only true way to play was FPS style point and click targeting. Envy might not agree, but the Devs took note and thought the majority wanted it. Of course, as always when a decision is made one way, everyone else said it sucked, and then 100% refused to play it at all because it wasn't 100% exactly what each individual amongst them was demanding. Mythic had the same problem with their "Shard Of The Dead" in UO; they were seriously considering making it permanent, but all the threads on Stratics devolved into "You suck, your ideas suck, I'll stay on a free shard" and they just gave up trying to appease them. And then, when the idea fails, every side will use their arguments to justify why there would have been eleventy-billion players, if only they'd listened to them. Full Loot can never fail, it can only be failed! Etc. And here we are again, so look for Envy blaming cursor-pointing rather than no one was playing Shroud, especially PvP in the first place (remember, it was tab targeting for years...)
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dodgy
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Post by dodgy on May 17, 2016 9:09:04 GMT
Non targeted combat works if the system has been built around it. I think if they had a mount and blade style from the start, with cards popping up as "combos" as you fought would create an incredibly dynamic style that would be easy to learn but hard to master. You cant just tack it on at the end or it feels exactly like this shit
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Post by fossil on May 17, 2016 17:53:55 GMT
Economics
If you can create growth, while driving down the average amount a customer is spending you will be successful.
If you stay at the same profit while your average amount your customer spends continues to go up, you will not be successful.
147 is the average spent per account in Sota. That would be the record per account average, I would bet. The figures on Star Citizen were around 75 per account.
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titsup
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Post by titsup on May 17, 2016 21:12:38 GMT
Economics If you can create growth, while driving down the average amount a customer is spending you will be successful. If you stay at the same profit while your average amount your customer spends continues to go up, you will not be successful. 147 is the average spent per account in Sota. That would be the record per account average, I would bet. The figures on Star Citizen were around 75 per account. The astounding thing is 147 is likely on the low side! Factor out all the $5 forum pledges and $10 and under pledges from KS and the number would only increase. Is there a benefit in Star Citizen to having multiple accounts? When you think of that $147 being associated with pledges and then think about what individual backers have spent instead, that number has to skyrocket as far as money spent per person. Also, I snorted when I read 'As soon as the game has picked what skills and weapons you can use...'
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titsup
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Post by titsup on Jun 3, 2016 15:09:29 GMT
From one of my new favorite people on the forums, 2112Starman, in a whole thread full of tinfoil hat wearing folks named appropriately False Flag OutrageWake up sheeple
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dodgy
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Post by dodgy on Jun 6, 2016 8:29:56 GMT
Million players at launch
nuff said
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titsup
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Post by titsup on Jun 10, 2016 21:17:39 GMT
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Post by nemolives on Jun 11, 2016 14:54:15 GMT
Yes, they'll have higher claimed property than active, because House Of The Avatar is all many of them are hanging on for, and anyone with a rent free deed will cyber-squat (they'd be fools not too). Thousands at launch isn't too unlikely, assuming they actually notify people it's final launch and give it a bit of hype. The interesting question though is whether those thousands will come from previous backers who've just not given a frig as they've seen the game develop, and come back to see what state it's now in... or if they'll be entirely new people. No, the real crazy for me in that comment is that he seems to think they've got a chance "to grow the active player base"... they really can't see the game has mixed reviews only because lunatics like them keep voting the rubbish up; when "Thousands of people show up" and actually see the rubbish, the die hards are in for one hell of a reality shock. Folks, folks, folks; we aren't unreasonable "haters"; the game just isn't any good.
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titsup
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Post by titsup on Jun 11, 2016 16:59:20 GMT
Yes, they'll have higher claimed property than active, because House Of The Avatar is all many of them are hanging on for, and anyone with a rent free deed will cyber-squat (they'd be fools not too). Thousands at launch isn't too unlikely, assuming they actually notify people it's final launch and give it a bit of hype. The interesting question though is whether those thousands will come from previous backers who've just not given a frig as they've seen the game develop, and come back to see what state it's now in... or if they'll be entirely new people. No, the real crazy for me in that comment is that he seems to think they've got a chance "to grow the active player base" I agree, but I do think thousands is generous. The only solid numbers to gauge population is Steamcharts and I'd be surprised if they hit more than 1500 peak and even if that's the case, I certainly don't think that'll be sustainable to any degree. I frankly don't believe their pledge numbers are in any way indicative of the player base given that so many have multiple accounts. Blake himself had 12? Envy has 14 and himself estimated the backer numbers are closer to 35-40000. Even if they hit 1500 concurrent players, is that enough to fill the world. 280 towns (Pot+NPC+PRT). Another 200 scenes? That's averaging 3 players per scene. Obviously players won't be evenly dispersed, but that's a lot of empty zones. I suspect major cities will be large hubs and the game has serious performance issues as is. Wait until homes have yards full of obnoxious decorations and 60 or 70 people casting random spells and macro in attack on gustballs. They've had no stress testing up until this point. Despite that, they're launching and coupling house placement on top of it. If thousands do show up, there's a chance all will not be well. It'll be interesting to see what the reviews look like around that time. Many of the rabid backers have already given positive reviews. A bunch of those that have been holding off will log in and see the poor performance issues and incomplete nature of the game and I expect they'll receive a good deal of negative reviews then.
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titsup
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Post by titsup on Jun 12, 2016 6:07:26 GMT
Just to piggy back on my previous post a bit. I thought I'd look into what the steam stats look like right now and for games that are roughly around 2,000 concurrent players at the time I write this. Here are some games around 2,000 players. The first number is the number of current concurrent users and the second number is the approximate number of Steam owners. For comparisons sake, I've also included SotA's information as well as some other MMOs for comparison's sake: 2,600 The Elders Scrolls Online 513,469 2,241 Planetside 2 6,007,398 2,009 Total War: Attila 730,289 1,979 VEGA Conflict 254,978 1,991 Don't Starve 3,382,574 1,886 Farming Simulator 15 566,477 1,861 Youtubers Life 213,307 1,852 Starbound 2,159,892 1,846 Prison Architect 1,575,054 1,786 Microsoft Flight Simulator 588,031 53 Shroud of the Avatar 29,218 This is really just to show that these games that are hovering around 2,000 users have outsold SotA by massive amounts. One, of course, could make the case that SotA is in Early Access and that people are shy about giving their money to Early Access products on Steam. However, that'd be wrong. Again, here are a few games that are currently in Early Access, their approximate Steam sales, their number of months in Early Access, with SotA included for comparison. 35,786 ARK: Survival Evolved 3,174,217 (12 months) 74% Positive [1% of owners active] 1,861 Youtubers Life 213,307 (1 month) 83% Positive [.8% of owners active] 4,733 Factorio 459,664 (4 months) 98% Positive [1% of owners active] 1,649 Subnautica 697,398 (18 months) 92% Positive [.2% of owners active] 19,693 Rust 3,838,725 (30 months) 82% Positive [.5% of owners active] 2,477 The Forest 1,973,887 (24 months) 90% Positive [1% of owners active] 4,767 7 Days to Die 1,406,133 (30 months) 80% Positive [.3% of owners active] 1,852 Starbound 2,159,892 (30 months) 89% Positive [.08% of owners active] 53 Shroud of the Avatar 29,218 (19 months) 65% Positive [.1% of owners active] People are perfectly willing to purchase Early Access games. Projecting multiple thousands to be logged in with any regularity is to project a concurrent user base that far exceeds even the most popular games active owner participation. Obviously their current user stats are useless, because there is an incoming wipe, the last one. I think, given what we see with other Early Access titles and the participation levels of their owners, its very difficult to see multiple thousands of users as BDF predicts. Say what one will about Elder Scrolls Online, at least the damn thing runs. Shroud continues to have horrid performance that is reported in the bug forum as blockers and they have one final wipe to clear this up. Even if a few thousand show up on the first day of live servers, how long until those people get completely frustrated by the game's poor performance?
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Post by nemolives on Jun 12, 2016 7:27:11 GMT
Interesting numbers, but one slight problem with your methodology is that you're comparing current active players with a one-off deliberately designed land rush; the real figure that counts is how many Shroud pledges were sold that contain a tax free home, because some unknown percentage of those are going to want to attend during the rush just to get some final value out their pledges. Currently Shroud is doing worse than everything but Starbound for percentage of active players in your figures, but there almost certainly will be a surge at launch, and this matters because the defenders will use those numbers and claim it's the true state of affairs. I expect them to say "We went from 53 players to 3000, that's better than Elder Scrolls Online!" and technically, that would be true... for the first week or so. Me, I think it's going to a the "Dead Cat Bounce", and as you say the reviews of those who give it a shot will be very, very interesting...
On the negative column, as you say many of the accounts are owned by one person and won't be concurrently in use (or likely at all if they were purchased to sell on); further, the land rush is staggered so it will also reduce the potential peak. But I think 3,000/Total Tax Free Accounts is easily doable. But it's not retain-able.
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titsup
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Post by titsup on Jun 12, 2016 15:59:50 GMT
Interesting numbers, but one slight problem with your methodology is that you're comparing current active players with a one-off deliberately designed land rush; My numbers were about retention, not a one off peak number. The peak numbers of each of those games are many multiples higher than the numbers I listed.
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Caliya
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People fight to gain things they can't take with them in the end
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Post by Caliya on Jun 12, 2016 19:43:32 GMT
Never know, he could be right. I mean, I plan to log in when it finally "lauches," but not because I plan to stick around. It's kind of like watching a train wreck. Or a lynching.
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titsup
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Post by titsup on Jun 13, 2016 0:13:10 GMT
I see maybe why there's some disagreement with me thinking 'thousands' showing up is crazy. Rereading what BDF wrote, it's clear he means thousands will be logging in at final wipe, not that thousands of players will be playing the game from there out. I think it's fair to say that may be the case given that 4500 pledges have lots to place. It was my misinterpretation of what he said.
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